Wirkungen der Westumfahrung Zürich: Eine Analyse mit einer agentenbasierten Mikrosimulation



Im Jahr 1971 ergänzte die Bundesversammlung das Nationalstrassennetz mit der nordwestlichen Umfahrung von Zürich (N20). Am 13. September 1996 wurde schlussendlich mit dem Spatenstich für den Abschnitt Umfahrung Birmensdorf der Baubeginn der Westumfahrung von Zürich gefeiert. Eines der erklärten Ziele dieses Werkes ist es, den Verkehr durch die Stadt Zürich, im Speziellen entlang derWesttangente, auf den Ring zu verlagern. Dazu sind verschiedene bauliche und verkehrslenkende Veränderungen, so genannte flankierende Massnahmen, geplant. Im Rahmen dieses Projektes werden die Auswirkungen jeder einzelnen Massnahme, sowie auch deren Kombinationen anhand einer agentenbasierten Mikrosimulation auf verkehrsplanerische Ziele für die Grossregion Zürich untersucht. Der Fokus wird dabei auf folgende Massnahmen gelegt:

* Bau der Westumfahrung und des Autobahnabschnitts A4
* bauliche Massnahmen Westtangente / Aussersihl: Rückbau der Nord-Süd-Achse Weststrasse zur Quartierstrasse, Gegenverkehr auf der bisherigen Süd-Nord Achse Seebahnstrasse
* Verkehrsbeeinflussung durch Anpassungen der Grünphasenanteile der Lichtsignalanlagen in Wollishofen

Als weiterer Aspekt werden die Auswirkungen auf den Verkehr der “Situation Total-Sanierung Uetlibergtunnel” analysiert, unter der Annahme, dass die oben genannten Massnahmen umgesetzt sind. Die Analysen der hier präsentierten Fallstudien werden dynamisch über den gesamten Tagesverlauf betrachtet. Zudem werden speziell diejenigen Bevölkerungsgruppen im Detail analysiert, die direkt von den Massnahmen betroffen und/oder in ihrem individuellen Mobilitätsverhalten beeinflusst werden. Die Resultate dienen den Projektverantwortlichen zur Beurteilung der flankierenden Massnahmen in der Stadt Zürich.

A new mode choice model for a multi-agent transport simulation
Paper presented at the 8th Swiss Transport Research Conference, Ascona, October 2008


This paper reports the development of a new mode choice model system, embedded in a multiagent transport simulation, aiming to obtain both a spatially and behaviourally fine representation of modal choice of the simulated individuals. The new model addresses the subtour level, substantially improving on previous work, which either addresses the trip or the tour. A subtour is any sequence of trips which starts and ends at the same location; a tour starts and ends at home. The subtour resolution allows us to consistently account for the differential availability of modes. Subtour mode choices are otherwise treated as independent events. The subtour level allows us to capture the noon peak behaviour appropriately. The model system has two stages both formulated as multinomial logit models. First, the mobility tool ownership is estimated for each agent; second, given this choice the mode choice is addressed at the sub-tour level of the individual daily activity chain. We considered car ownership and public transport season ticket ownership and their possible combinations. The subtour models for walk, bicycle, car, car passenger and public transport are estimated by subtour's main purpose to account for taste differences. The attributes of alternatives' utility functions are socio-demographic characteristics of individuals, such as age, income, mobility tool ownership, etc., and distance covered. The mode choice module is integrated in the simulation toolkit MATSim-T (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation Toolkit). The module has been tested with a large scale scenario,based on Swiss data, and proved able to reproduce real modal choices of the population with a fine spatial resolution. Results are presented for a scenario in which the whole Swiss population is simulated. They are compared to the most recent Swiss national travel diary survey.

Concepts for a large scale car-sharing system: Modelling and evaluation with an agent-based approach
Arbeitsbericht Verkehrs und Raumplanung, 517


This paper is aimed to renew the debate on car-sharing and its future development. The recent worldwide success should not hide the fact that car-sharing is still a niche product. There is agreement that car-sharing produces benefits for the transport system, the environment and the society. However, the scale of such benefits is minimal. This is a reason to attempt the implementation of a system at a much larger scale. A car-sharing scheme of this type is sketched and some concepts on which the system would be based are suggested. They are the capillarity of the system, its flexibility and its integration with other urban mobility tools. For the future implementation of such a scheme it is crucial to find a methodology which would be able to realistically assess its potential. Reviewing the methodologies used so far to investigate car-sharing potential suggests that the adoption of an agent based approach might be the right answer. A framework to model a large scale carsharing scheme with such methodology is proposed in the context of MATSim-T, an existing agent based traffic micro-simulation tool.

Location choice of retailers - an agent-based approach
Paper presented at the 15th International Conference on Recent Advances in Retailing and Services Science, Zagreb, July 2008


The paper reports about an ongoing project, where the goal is to develop an agent-based module of location decisions of retailers which will eventually be implemented into the larger agentbased model MATSim-T. So far, this model system is basically a fast microscopic transport model, where the supply side is not explicitly modeled. The research goals of this paper are multiple. Since the envisaged retailer module will focus on location choice of retailers and in particular their possible adoption strategies facing the introduction of road pricing, a literature review on those issues and the current knowledge is summarized. Those insights of retailer location decisions described in the literature are enriched through the report of a series of in-depth interviews, which have been conducted with retailers of various product groups in Germany and Switzerland in the winter of 2008. A literature overview on agent-based descriptions of retail markets shows potentially suitable approaches of the modelling of retailers. Moreover, a short overview on MATSim-T is provided. Finally a conceptual model for the new retailer agent is proposed, discussing the main issues arising with the introduction of such types of agents in MATSim-T.

Anwendung eines agentenbasierten Modells der Verkehrsnachfrage auf die Schweiz
Paper presented at the Heureka '08, Stuttgart, March 2008


Heutige Fragen an die Verkehrsplanung wecken ein Bedürfnis zur Abschätzung der tageszeitlichen Dynamik der Verkehrsnachfrage. Agentenbasierte Modelle des Verkehrsverhaltens simulieren individuelle Aktivitätenpläne und damit explizit die Tageszeit. In diesem Artikel wird die Anwendung des Simulationssystems MATSim-T auf den Strassenverkehr der ganzen Schweiz präsentiert. Die Dynamik der Verkehrsnachfrage kann gut abgebildet werden, was ein Vergleich mit repräsentativen Beobachtungen zeigt.

Mobility tool ownership and mode choice decision processes in multi-agent transportation simulation
Paper presented at the 7th Swiss Transport Research Conference, Ascona, September 2007


This paper presents mode choice decision processes in the context of MATSimT (MultiAgent Transport Simulation Toolkit), a simulation toolkit which uses the concept of Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) in order to obtain individual, daily, travel demand. The module described in this paper implements logit models and is embedded in MATSimT as a planning module. At a first stage the mobility tool ownership among the population, based on the Swiss Mikrozenzus data of 2005, is estimated with a logit model. Then a mode choice is performed at the tour level of the daily activity chain. A multiple choice among four alternatives, walk, bicycle, car, transit, is modeled. The module is integrated in the preprocess stage of MATSimT and its goal is to produce a reasonable tour based mode choice for each individual. The attributes considered in the utility functions of alternatives are sociodemographic characteristics of the population, such as age, income, employment, car ownership, etc. Even in this simple form the module represents a substantial improvement of the toolkit, increasing its ability to simulate realistic traffic patterns. The module has been tested with different, large scale, scenarios based on Swiss data. The presented results show that the module is able to reproduce modal choices consistent with that data.

Modeling collective taxis in a multi-agent traffic simulation framework



This paper report on ongoing work aimed to explore new solutions to urban traffic problems. The use of collective taxi services at a large scale is proposed. It is seen, if used and properly integrated together with other flexible systems, as a mean to reduce private car travel. The paper discusses motivations and possible factors of success of the system, and sketches the characteristics that such a service should have. Moreover, the problem of estimating the potential of a new transport option in a reliable way is confronted. It is suggested that the use of agent based microsimulation might be appropriate. The planned implementation in an existing modelling framework of this kind, MATSim-T, is also described.

Large scale use of collective taxis: a multi-agent approach



This paper reports on ongoing work aimed to estimate the potential use of collective taxis at large scale in urban areas as a mean to mitigate congestion and social exclusion. The methodology used to assess the potential of the system is agent based modeling. An existing open source software project, called MAT-Sim-T (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation Toolkit, http://matsim.org), has been enhanced within this project in order to allow the modeling of the taxi mode. Cur-rently the way in which the taxi mode has been added is quite simple. A cost structure reflecting the implementation scheme of the taxi system has been de-fined. The simulated individuals (agents) will have this additional option and will choose it, or not, according to the generalized cost it generate for their schedules (plans). Even in this simple form the model allows for a preliminary estimation of the collective taxi potential. The results of a test case for the city of Zurich, a sce-nario with about 160’000 agents, are reported and discussed.

Agenten-basierte Simulation für location based services
Schlussbericht KTI 8443.1 ESPP-ES


Mobilität bildet den Grundpfeiler auf dem ortsbasierte Dienstleistungen (Location Based Services) ruhen. Darum ist ein präzises Abbild der Mobilität der zu erreichenden Zielgruppen für diese Art von Diensten unerlässlich. Mikrosimulationsmodelle zur Generierung von Mobilität liefern hierzu eine vollständige Mobilitätsanalyse, inklusive der Entscheidungsfindungsprozesse mobiler Individuen und somit die Verknüpfung statistisch relevanter Kenngrössen für unterschiedliche demographische und sozio-demographische Gruppierungen mit detaillierter, dynamischer Mobilität. Diese Eigenschaften bilden den Kernaspekt zur Dimensionierung von ortsbasierte Dienstleistungen. Basierend auf dem Open-Source Forschungsprojekt MATSim ist das erste, vollständig integrierte Umlegungs- und Verhaltensmodell für Zeit-, Routen-, Verkehrsmittel- und Ortswahl für die gesamte Schweiz entstanden.

Estimating the Potential of a Large Scale Car-Sharing System with an Agent-Based Microsimulation Approach



This paper reports on ongoing work aimed to estimate the potential use of car sharing at large scale in urban areas as a mean to mitigate congestion and social exclusion. The methodology used to assess the potential of the system is agent based modelling. An existing open source software, called MATSim-T (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation Toolkit, http://matsim.org), has been enhanced within this project to allow the modelling of the car sharing mode. In order to add the car sharing mode to the simulation toolkit a cost structure reflecting the implementation scheme of the system has been defined. The simulated individuals (agents) will have this additional option and will choose it, or not, according to the generalized cost it generates for their schedules (plans). The travelling time for this mode, is analogue to that for car and it is calculated on a congested network, where all cars are simulated, adding realism to the model. The results of a test case for the city of Zurich, a scenario with about 160’000 agents, are reported and discussed.

Estimation of Car-Sharing Demand Using an Activity-Based Microsimulation Approach: Model Discussion and Preliminary Results



Car-sharing is a system in which individuals have access to a car from a fleet on an hourly basis. The growing popularity of car-sharing is reflected by a continuous increase in the number of users worldwide. However, the estimation of travel demand for this mode has only sporadically been addressed by researchers and not in a completely satisfactory way. The work reported in this paper introduces a new methodology to estimate travel demand for car-sharing: activity-based microsimulation. An existing open source software, MATSim (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation, http://matsim.org), has been enhanced to allow the modeling of the car-sharing mode. This paper reports on the modeling approach and describes the implementation of the car-sharing system. Finally, some preliminary results, based on a simulation scenario with about 160.000 agents and representing the urban area of Zurich, Switzerland, are presented.

Large-scale agent-based travel demand optimization applied to Switzerland, including mode choice



This paper presents the application of the agent-based transport simulation toolkit MATSim-T to a large-scale scenario of Switzerland. The scenario is called large-scale because ca. 6 million synthetic persons, “agents”, are simulated on a high-resolution network model with >1 million links. MATSim-T is able to compute a relaxed state of the simulation system within 60 iterations of the learning-based solution procedure with regard to mode choice, car route choice and choice of activity timing. This is achieved by applying improved optimization algorithms in the replanning stage. A genetic algorithm is used for times and and mode choice optimization of activity plans, together with an efficient implementation of time-dependent shortest path search for route choice.
The improvements of the behavioral model reported in this paper are focused on the scoring function which can process individualized parameters for measuring the quality of all-day activity plans. Combined with disaggregate input data for population and land use, it was possible to build a heterogeneous and thus more realistic scenario. Furthermore, four modes of transport (car, public transit, bike, walk) are considered in the presented application. The generalized cost of the car option is determined by a queue simulation of traffic flow. In order to prove the concept of mode choice optimization in a multi-agent microsimulation, the other modes are modelled as abstract alternatives with static travel costs constant throughout the modeled average workday. It is shown how the model is calibrated against observed modal split data. The results are validated with average workday count data. Despite the simple cost structure of the mode alternatives, and due to a mode choice concept based on subtours, the observed spatial distribution of the modal split can be reproduced within ±10 percentage points per mode.